What to expect from RBI today?


Today RBI is slated to release the bimonthly monetary policy statement. Till date, it has dropped rates four consecutive times totaling 110 bps starting with 25 bps in Feb’19. Question is whether it will continue on the same line and reduce rate by another 25-35 bps or play safe and…

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Indian Economy: Dip in Sea or in Deep Sea?


Sitting in my bed room watching the cloudy sky, I feel sad. I get confused whether the effect is from the incessant rains for the last few days or is it the slow sipping in of the pervasive pessimism on Indian economy. Auto industry is crying recession while the SENSEX…

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NPA: Why It Is A Curse on our Economy?


Indian banking system reeled under fresh slippages of more than 2.3 lakh crore in FY1819.  The write offs (including Technical) grossed more than 2 lakh crore while provisions towards NPA stood at nearly 2.6 lakh crore. Compare this with India’s fiscal deficit of 6.35 lakh crore! The comparison is worth…

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RBI Dividend and Your Father in Law


100,000,000,000,000 INR! For those lost in the zeros, it is ten lakh crores. That’s the RBI’s stated equity position, which GOI believes is too high and wants some of it transferred to government. But RBI believes otherwise, leading to numerous committees earlier and now with the Bimal Jalan committee, being…

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India’s Economic Condition: The Stalemate Continues


In recent days, we have seen economists taking sides and writing explanation/ rebuttal on Indian government’s new methodology of calculating GDP. While that arguably is a good debate to have, the bottom line is that changing methodology hasn’t changed the fortune for our lackluster GDP growth. The government thought that…

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Breaking: Services & Manu PMI lowest since Sep18, “Job creation 6 month low”, RBI All Set to Reduce Policy Rates by 50bps


Breaking News: Services PMI at 52 is still expanding but lower than Feb (52.5) At 52, it is lowest expansion since March Nikkei notes that “Job creation at six-month low“ That RBI is set to reduce repo by at-least 25 bps (if not 50) in its upcoming 4th April monetary…

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Same Data But Different Interpretations: That’s RBI For You!


They say great mind thinks alike. So when you have a few great minds pouring over same set of data, they are most likely to concur. But that’s not what you get when you go through the minutes of RBI last policy meet. They look at same set of numbers…

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